In 2009, I had written a blog titled, “One man with courage makes a majority.” It focused on how Nitish Kumar’s governance reforms had transformed Bihar. A year later, the Nitish-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) won an unprecedented mandate of 206 seats out of a total of 243. To many, the explanation was simple. People had voted beyond caste and other sectarian factors for Nitish, it was for his transformation work. The RJD was reduced to its lowest ever tally of 22 seats with their legislative leader and Lalu’s wife, Rabri Devi, losing from Raghopur as well as Sonepur, two seats that had long been family bastions. Never had I imagined that we would witness a very similar result 15 years later with the same man at the helm of affairs. Nitish is once again the central figure of a victory that few could have predicted. Emerging Triumphant Again The 2025 Bihar verdict has given the NDA 202 of the 243 seats. BJP bagged 89 and the JD(U) secured 85 out of the 101 each contested, a strike rate that would be the envy of any political formation in Bharat. The RJD has been reduced to a result almost identical to its 2010 debacle with 25 seats, and the Congress has slipped further down to a mere six seats. The Mahagathbandhan has lost some of its biggest fortresses, raising serious questions about cracks within its traditional and once formidable Muslim-Yadav coalition. Tejashwi Yadav scraped through in Raghopur after trailing across several rounds, a symbolic moment for a party that once dominated the region. Nitish Clearly the Favourite Swedish novelist, Hjalmar Soderberg, once said: “People want to be loved, failing which they want to be admired, failing which they want to be feared, failing which they want to be hated and despised; ultimately, they want to evoke some sort of strong feeling.” While Lalu Prasad Yadav in the 1990s went as far as to evoke fear among the backward castes against the upper castes in a bid to consolidate his vote bank, Nitish Kumar never had to move beyond the first emotion. Nitish Kumar was loved for his governance transformation during 2005 to 2010, and he is loved even now when he is at the twilight of his political career not only for governance but also for his personal rectitude and what he has come to symbolise in public life. Nitish had once, during his struggle days in the 1970s, stamped on a table and said, ‘I will do whatever it takes to come to power, but I will do good things once in power.’ Many have often recalled this quote as an early hint of a politician who may adjust tactical moves but not core convictions. The current mandate seems to reaffirm that perception. The voter has endorsed not just his administrative priorities but the idea of him as a moral centre in Bihar politics. Much credit for NDA victory also goes to the strategic architecture of the alliance. For the first time, NDA was able to bring together not just JD(U) and HAM but also Upendra Kushwaha and Chirag Paswan, who had played the role of the prime disrupter in the 2020 election cycle. In a caste-fractured Bihar, this combination looked formidable on paper. The next challenge was ensuring controversy free seat sharing and seamless vote transfers between alliance partners. BJP played the central role of troubleshooter, managing grievances among the smaller partners and preventing discussions from derailing at any stage. Excellent Supervision by Home Minister Home Minister Amit Shah personally supervised the ticket announcement process despite the presence of BJP heavyweights like Vinod Tawde and Dharmendra Pradhan in Bihar. His extended stay in the State to manage both alliance partners and internal rebel candidates indicates how crucial this election was for the BJP and how seriously the party treated the stakes. While some analysts attribute this win to schemes such as the transfer of Rs 10,000 into the accounts of women, welfare measures like increasing pension from Rs 400 to Rs 1,100, and 125 units of free electricity, this would be too simplistic an explanation for such a decisive mandate. Even the women-centric money transfer has succeeded only because of credibility that had already been established among women over years. This includes the long legacy of policies from bicycles and school uniforms for girls to 50 per cent reservation in Panchayats and 35 per cent reservation in government jobs. The social foundation created by these earlier reforms enhanced the believability of current schemes and converted policy promises into genuine political capital. Directionless Alliance On the other hand, INDI alliance lost momentum at the exact moment when cohesion was required. Even though it launched its Voter Adhikar Yatra with energy, the alliance soon became directionless during seat-sharing talks. The absence of Rahul Gandhi at this crucial stage allowed narratives of internal discord, particularly between RJD and Congress, to dominate the news cycle. Tejashwi Yadav struggled to assert himself and conclude the discussions, a task many believe would have been carried out decisively by Lalu Prasad Yadav. Seat sharing was announced several days after nominations had closed which turned the process into a spectacle. Partners fought each other on more than ten seats which Ashok Gehlot, who was later dispatched to salvage the situation, termed a friendly fight. The claim did little to hide the disarray. The final blow came when Mukesh Sahani managed to negotiate his projection as the Deputy Chief Minister candidate despite being the fourth-largest party in the coalition. This episode exposed the alliance’s vulnerability to last-minute bargaining. The Muslim community was particularly disappointed. To them, the elevation of a Mallah leader without any similar gesture towards the loyal Muslim vote bank was an unnecessary provocation. The decision to name the alliance manifesto ‘Tejashwi Pran’ further signalled the RJD’s dominance over Congress rather than unity in purpose. During the campaign, the partners of the Mahagathbandhan appeared out of sync regarding issues. Congress remained obsessed with the Vote […]
