Oracle’s credit risk is rising fast as its $300 billion AI contracts and massive cloud build-out push debt above $100 billion and toward 4x EBITDA. Free cash flow is still negative. Moody’s rates Oracle at Baa2 with a negative outlook, citing leverage and counterparty risk tied to OpenAI. S&P holds BBB with a negative outlook and warns spending could drag ratings near BBB-. Barclays cut Oracle to underweight, expecting pressure toward junk territory. Bond yields are climbing. CDS spreads are spiking. Markets see a possible downgrade by 2026 if cash flow and execution slip.
